Predictions, Simple Strategies, & the Microplastics Mess in our Bodies
Decision Balance Newsletter | 11/14/2024
Key Insight
The future is not as visible as the present and yet predicting the future is a key component of the job for many readers of this newsletter. Organizational Psychologist Adam Grant explains, “Our struggles to predict the future aren’t limited to events. They apply to our feelings, too. In the heat of the moment, we overindex on our anguish today and underestimate our capacity to adapt tomorrow.” Social Scientist Phillip Tetlock's landmark 2005 study on prediction showed that “the average expert was only slightly more accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee.” However, in his subsequent book, Superforecasters,Tetlock argued that good judgment and good forecasting are teachable skills. Do you have a practice to improve your prediction skills?
A question to ask yourself
Does more complexity in your life deliver greater fulfillment? In this podcast about storytelling, lion tracker Boyd Varty shares the wisdom of the ancient bushmen of Africa - “simplicity as abundance.” A key element is the sharing of experiences via storytelling. Even if you are not sitting around a campfire after a safari adventure you can still incorporate these ingredients to help you to become a great storyteller. He suggests seeking out “characters” versus those that fit in, saying yes more often to experiences, and following your curiosity. You might become infinitely more interesting.
Reading, podcast thoughts
Duke Basketball freshman phenom Cooper Flagg will likely be the number 1 pick in the next NBA draft. Last Summer the 17 year old played in a scrimmage with the US Mens Olympic team scoring 17 points (6-10 shooting). NBA All-Star Kevin Durant said of Flagg, “he looks like a hell of a player. He’s 17 years old coming in here playing like a [veteran] almost. No emotion, just going out there doing his job.” The last part is the key, stay emotionally even and do your job. Performance will follow.
KIND founder, Daniel Lubetzky, only raised $5.1 million outside capital from founding to the sale to Mars for $5 Billion. Other than his investment of $100K from friends and family, “nobody wanted to invest in me.” As a result he struggled to escape a scarcity mindset while building his company. The compromise he struck with himself to fulfill KIND’s potential was a “resourceful mentality where you learn where it makes sense to invest, but you invest smartly.”
Health
The next time you consider sprinkling sea salt on your perfectly crisp french fries consider those flakes are overrun with microplastics. The solution according Andrew Huberman is Himalayan Pink Salt which is sourced far from our oceans. In this podcast, Huberman walks us through the pervasiveness of microplastics and provides a hierarchy of what to avoid to limit your exposure in this podcast. Start by eliminating plastic bottles, do not heat plastic (even microwave safe) in the microwave, and do not use paper cups for hot liquid (the paper is lined with microplastics).
Welcome to the DecisionBalance newsletter where I share insights, questions, and reading recommendations. I coach asset managers, artists, and start-up founder/CEOs to set goals, improve performance, and find deeper meaning in their work.
